Universal Convergence in OECD R&D Researcher Capacity: Persistence, Selective Catch-Up, and Multiple Trajectories (2015-2024)
Ngobum Chinwengozi Ibe (Mrs)
Journal of Information & Systems Management, Vol. 16, No. 3, 2026.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.6025/jism/2026/16/3/126-156
Link: https://www.dline.info/jism/fulltext/v16n3/jismv16n3_3.pdf
Abstract:
This study examines the convergence, persistence, catch up dynamics, and heterogeneous trajectories of
R&D researcher capacity across OECD and selected partner economies during 2015-2023. Using an integrated
analytical framework combining ï³ convergence, absolute ï¢ convergence, the Phillips Sul log-t test, Markov
transition analysis, trajectory clustering, compound annual growth rate (CAGR) analysis, and a growth
level typology, the study investigates whether national researcher stocks move toward a common long run
equilibrium or instead follow differentiated development paths. The results decisively reject universal
convergence: cross country dispersion did not decline systematically, the ï¢ -convergence coefficient was
statistically insignificant (ï¢ = +0.000599, p = 0.867), and the Phillips Sul test rejected overall convergence
(t = -22.002). Markov transition analysis revealed strong structural persistence, with probabilities of
remaining in the same capacity state ranging from 74.4% to 94.1%. Nevertheless, the study identified selective
catch up: Poland, TÃ¼rkiye, Hungary, Slovenia, and Croatia showed rapid researcher capacity growth and
formed a statistically distinct trajectory cluster. The growth level typology classified countries into four
regimes: strategic leaders, mature leaders, catch up economies, and persistent laggards. The study concludes
that R&D researcher capacity constitutes a multi regime system characterized by simultaneous persistence,
selective catch up, and multiple trajectories rather than a single convergence process. These findings carry
significant implications for differentiated science, technology, and innovation policy design.