Sensitivity Analysis of Computational Models for solving Paradox
Jurij Nastran, Beno Sircelj, Matjaz Gams, Drago Bokal
Journal of Networking Technology, Vol. 10, No. 1, 2019.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.6025/jnt/2019/10/1/18-24
Link: http://www.dline.info/jnt/fulltext/v10n1/jntv10n1_3.pdf
Abstract:
Given the estimated number of stars and planets in our galaxy, the probability of existence of intelligent civilizations seems high. The first to indicate this was the Drake equation with the assumed default parameters. Yet, the actual
observations have yet to reflect those expectations. This discrepancy corresponds to the so-called Fermi Paradox. Although
many key factors about the likelihood of alien civilizations still remain largely unknown, new methods of estimating the
probability are being proposed. Some of them use probability distributions and the Monte Carlo methods. In this paper we
recalculate one of those - the Sandberg interpretation of the Drake equation, analyze the difference between the methods,
their strengths and weaknesses. In the conclusion, we find that the probability distribution better reflects our ignorance
about the properties of alien environments than the dot-product method.
In our opinion, there are several ways to further improve the computational model based on the Drake equation using the AI
methods, thus eliminating the problem with too small probabilities and introducing 3D views.
What makes these analysis relevant, is not only the number of estimated civilizations in our galaxy and a probability that we
encounter them in the near future. More important, these models enable estimation of the life-span of the human civilization.
Unfortunately, there is a considerably high probability that it will be quite short.