Prestige, Impact, and Stability: A Longitudinal Analysis of Global University Rankings Using ARWU Data (2021-2025)
R. Sebastiyan, Pit Pichappan
Journal of Science &Technology Metrics, Vol. 7, No. 2, 2026.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.6025/jstm/2026/7/2/88-108
Link: https://www.dline.info/jstm/fulltext/v7n2/jstmv7n2_3.pdf
Abstract:
This longitudinal study examines the dynamics of global university rankings using data from the Academic
Ranking of World Universities (ARWU) for the top 25 institutions from 2021 to 2025. Employing a multifaceted
quantitative approach including descriptive statistics, rank volatility analysis, correlation and multiple
regression modeling, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), K-means clustering, and trajectory tracking this
research investigates temporal changes in ranking indicators, institutional stability, the relative influence of
performance metrics, and latent strategic profiles among elite universities.
Results reveal substantial heterogeneity in indicator dynamics, with the Award (Nobel/Fields Medal staff)
and Nature & Science (N&S) scores exhibiting the largest absolute changes. Regression analysis demonstrated
that prestige related indicators, particularly Award (ï¢ï€  = 0.402), exert the strongest influence on Total
Score, collectively explaining over 92% of the variance. PCA identified two dominant dimensions Academic
Prestige and Research Excellence (PC1, 71.8% variance) and Publication Productivity and Efficiency (PC2)
highlighting the primacy of impact and reputation over publication volume. K-means clustering (validated
via elbow, silhouette, and Davies Bouldin metrics) delineated three strategic archetypes: Elite Prestige Leaders
(e.g., Harvard, Stanford), Research Driven Institutions (e.g., MIT, UC Berkeley), and Balanced High
Performers.Elite institutions displayed remarkable positional stability, while competitive pressures drove volatility in
other tiers. These findings underscore how scientific prestige, high impact research, and cumulative advantage
sustain stratification in global higher education. The study offers data driven insights for institutional
strategy and policy to enhance international competitiveness.